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The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), a U.S. independent system operator with relatively high wind penetration is exploring new possibilities for its ancillary services planning and procurement processes. This analysis is intended to inform potential market redesigns that take into account an evolving resource mix (including higher levels of variable RE) in an effort to better address the challenges of these new resources, and to better utilize existing and new resources. This report focuses on frequency control and does not address emergency response service, voltage support, reliability must-run, and black-start.
Located in Integration Topics / Ancillary Services / Ancillary Services folder
This study summarizes the results of an in-depth modeling of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, wind integration study, and transmission analysis. The study examines various technical issues under a 20% wind integration scenario. Section 5 examines power system regulation and balancing, and Section 6 explores impacts on systems operation. The report assesses ancillary services that provide both spinning and nonspinning reserves and offer frequency response, balancing, and system security.
Located in Integration Topics / Ancillary Services / Ancillary Services folder
This paper quantifies the benefits of various options for increasing power system flexibility. The authors evaluate the benefits of flexibility using two primary metrics: economic carrying capacity and system costs. Results indicate that flexibility can increase the economic carrying capacity of wind and solar energy and reduce system costs. Multiple combinations of flexibility options are evaluated, including combinations of demand response, energy storage, enhanced cooperation among balancing areas, lower minimum generation requirements for gas and coal generators, among others.
Located in Integration Topics / Flexible Generation / Flexible Generation folder
This review examines several wind power forecasting models, including Wind Power Management System, Wind Power Prediction Took, Prediktor, ARMINES, and Previento. These models use physical, statistical, and hybrid methodologies. The authors examine the accuracy of the models and possible causes of error.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
This report examines wind forecasting of wind ramp events and possible metrics to evaluate ramps. The authors compare existing methodologies, including event detection and regression, to assess such ramps and find that additional work is needed to develop forecasting methodologies that are more accurate.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
This report provides a brief overview of emerging best practices and state-of-the-art methods for variable RE forecasting. The authors differentiate between shortest term (0 – 6 hours), short term (6 – 48 hours) and medium-term (2 – 10 days) applications for solar and wind power forecasting. Topics covered include forecasting techniques (including data requirements, numerical prediction models, conversion of meteorological forecasts to power generation forecasts, ensemble forecasting, forecasting power plant outages and curtailments), forecast accuracy, and various approaches to RE forecasting. Chapter 3 provides examples of how systems around the world are approaching RE forecasting, with examples from Europe, the United States, India, South Africa, Brazil and Uruguay. Additionally, the report discusses general concepts for integrating RE forecasting into system operations.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
This report quantifies the value of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator market and estimates savings from regulation and flex reserves, as well as production savings. The authors examine both low wind (8% penetration) and high wind (25% penetration) scenarios. Cost savings are estimated to be USD 1.27 to 17.1 million for flex reserves, USD 0.917 to 12.7 million for regulation reserves, and USD 2.87 to 116 million for production costs.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
Based on a series of interviews with thirteen operating entities in the Western Interconnection of the United States, this report summarizes practices, lessons learned, and priorities related to the implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The operating entities provided insights regarding cost assignment, forecasting accuracy and uses, data collection, curtailment and outages, probabilistic forecasting, distributed solar production, control room integration, and staff training, among other topics.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
This report describes the state-of-the-art with respect to variable generation integration, mostly focused on the United States but also providing a few international examples where particularly relevant. The report is predominantly based on an extensive literature review with input from General Electric (GE) and PJM. Pages 97–119 focus on forecasting.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
This report summarizes Xcel Energy’s forecasting program for its Colorado service area. Xcel began partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in 2008 to develop a new forecasting system. The report overviews the wind forecasting system, data acquisition, models, power conversion and outputs, results of the program and ongoing work.
Located in Integration Topics / Forecasting / Forecasting folder
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